Division Leaders: AL Central - May 13th, 2015

AL Central

Kansas City Royals – 21-12

League Rankings, Batting – 3^rd in runs scored, 1^st in hits, 2^nd in doubles, 1^st in triples, Tied-4^th in SB, 1^st in fewest SO, 1^st in BA, 1^st in OBP, 2^nd in SLG, 1^st in OPS…oh, and 1^st in HBP (shocker).

Well, where does one begin? This is what we’ve come to expect from the Royals: getting on base, swiping bags, and scoring runs. That’s pretty much as simple as it gets. Numerous suspensions and poorly-handled and/or misdirected anger aside, the 2015 model is humming along at a sustainable pace, and suddenly fans all over the country are taking the Royals seriously as a legitimate contender and possible heir-apparent to the AL crown, once more. There are a lot of hitters on this roster who are firing on all cylinders. For starters, 1B Eric HYPERLINK "http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hosmeer01.shtml"Hosmer (.326, 21 runs scored, 9 doubles, 6 HR, 27 RBI) is killing it, as evidenced further by his .967 OPS. There’s a confidence in Hosmer that isn’t exactly new, but it’s definitely reached a new level. Shortstop AlcidesHYPERLINK "http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobal02.shtml" Escobar (.307, 7 doubles, 11 RBI) is picking up the pace in recent games, batting .364 over the past 7 days (22 AB), scoring four and driving in three. Third sacker Mike HYPERLINK "http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moustmi01.shtml"Moustakas (.322, 22 runs scored, 6 doubles, 4 HR, 11 RBI) is continuing to fulfill the promise the Royals saw in him when they made him their 1^st round pick in 2007 (finally, right?), and while his numbers in each of the past three seasons were far from All-Star caliber, he is showing signs that 2015 will be the year that it all comes together. In left, Alex Gordon is, well, Alex Gordon (he is what we thought he was!), batting .295 with nine doubles, four homers and 17 RBI. His .913 OPS is second only to Hosmer’s .967 for the team lead. Centerfielder Lorenzo Cain (.314, 23 runs scored, 7 doubles, 14 RBI, 6 SB) is ripping up turf in the field and digging trenches on the base-paths. Yeah, that’s what speed do. KendrysHYPERLINK "http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moralke01.shtml" Morales (.299, 26 runs scored, 11 doubles, 4 HR, 25 RBI) is producing runs at a significant pace, which is what was expected of him. Don’t let the paltry homer total concern you; all that matters, especially on this team, is scoring runs. Of course, the Royals have proven that they can manufacture runs the old-fashioned way as well as crush wayward fastballs. And even though they’re near the bottom in homers, they’re at the top in extra-base hits and on-base percentage. On that note, enter Paulo Orlando. The 29 year-old rookie spent a whopping 1,017 games in the minors before making his debut in right field, this year. Overall, he has not disappointed. How many players can you name who hit five triples before they recorded their first double? Strange, right? He’s slowed down a bit, batting-wise, but even if he is pushing 30 he’s still a rookie. It’s a safe bet that he’ll be established as a significant part of their offense by year’s end.

League Rankings, Pitching – 2^nd in ERA, 3^rd in SV, 3^rd in fewest hits allowed, 2^nd in HR allowed, 1^st in ER allowed

OK, those rankings look pretty good, right? Well, they’re not. What I mean is that the rotation is, to be polite, struggling (Jeremy Guthrie, Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura all have ERAs over 5.00), and while Chris Young has picked up some of the slack (0.78 ERA, 8 games, 2 starts, 23 IP, 19 K), it’s going to take a bit more than the brilliance of Wade Davis (15 appearances, 6 hits allowed, 2 BB, 14 K), Kelvin Hererra (13 appearances, 12 1/3 IP, 14 K) and Yohan Pino (6 appearances, 14 IP, 13 K) to offset that deficiency. Greg Holland is, of course, dominating (8 appearances, 9 IP, 6 K, 6 SV), but that rotation is still a glaring issue. Edinson Volquez is doing his part, to be sure (2-3, 3.19 ERA, 42 1/3 IP, 17 BB, 33 K), but Duffy needs to get it together and Ventura needs to chill the heck out (sorry; can’t measure anger with a stat) if this rotation is going to survive, let alone thrive. The offense is doing all it can do, but the starting pitching makes 1^st place a precarious position for the Boys In Blue.

Division Leaders: AL East - May 13th, 2015

Well, we’re just over a month into the ML season, and as usual there are condemnations and exhortations aplenty; one team is “bound to win it all!” while another “needs to be dismantled completely”.

So it is with baseball fans. And perhaps that’s how it should be.

It can test one’s patience. One month does not a season make. Still, one has to respect the passion. That is, after all, what it means to be a fan.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at who’s on in first, and why:

AL East

New York Yankees – 21-13

League Rankings, Batting – 4^th in runs scored, 5^th in hits, 3^rd in doubles, 2^nd in HR, Tied-4^th in SB, 2^nd in BB

Honestly, at first glance it’s sort of hard to figure out how the Yankees have managed to hold the top spot in the East. Then you look at their offensive rankings, and that sheds a bit of light on the subject. They’ve thus far managed to play a power-speed game that has translated into 162 runs scored in 34 games (4.77 runs/game), with 1B Mark Teixeira (.351 OBP, 11 HR, 27 RBI), LF Brett Gardner (24 runs scored, 16 RBI, 10 SB, .318 BA, .397 OBP), CF Jacoby HYPERLINK "http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/ellsbja01.shtml"Ellsbury (26 runs scored, 11 SB, .346 BA, .418 OBP) and the seemingly-reborn Chris Young (.303 BA, 6 HR, 12 RBI in 76 AB) and, yes, DH Alex Rodriguez (.243 BA, .357 OBP, 8 HR, 20 RBI) leading the way.

League Rankings, Pitching – 1^st in ERA, 1^st in SV, 4^th in fewest HR allowed, 1^st in K, 4^th in fewest BB allowed

Hello? Michael Pineda? Yeah, he’s good. But he’s not the only one. RHP Nathan HYPERLINK "http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eovalna01.shtml"Eovaldi (3-1, 4.14 ERA, 41 1/3 IP, 11 BB, 31 K) is far better, stuff-wise, than his numbers would suggest. He's bringing high-90's heat and a sweet breaking ball; expect him to be a perennial All-Star-level pitcher, soon. If Masahiro Tanaka can ever get healthy again, he can take this staff up a couple of notches. Then again, that’s a big ‘if’. Perhaps the biggest surprise concerning LHP CC HYPERLINK "http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml"Sabathia (1-5, 5.20 ERA, 45 IP, 10 BB, 38 K) is that he’s managed to strike out thirty-eight batters. That’s a dead arm, right there. We shouldn’t forget that RHP Adam Warren (2-1, 4.65 ERA, 31 IP, 16 K) put up some strong numbers in the minors as a starter, even if he’s been throwing out of the ‘pen since he came to the Majors in 2012. He was a 4^th round pick in 2009; that’s important to remember, as well. Don’t lose faith.

Speaking of the ‘pen, what has gotten into LHP Andrew Miller? Since 2014, he has struck out 129 batters in 78 innings. Let that sink in, for a moment. Oh, and he’s allowed only 3 homers in that span while producing a sparkling 1.62 ERA. Aroldis Who? Oh yeah…righty DellinHYPERLINK "http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/betande01.shtml" HYPERLINK "http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/betande01.shtml"Betances has yet to allow an earned run in 2015. That’s 20 innings, 8 hits allowed, and 31 strikeouts. Shouldn’t be too surprising, since he posted a ridiculous 1.40 ERA in 90 innings in 2014 (70 appearances, 46 hits allowed). 

Encore! 2013 Legends Likely to Return to Lexington

FEB 11^th, 2014-While there can be a number of reasons for a player to repeat a level in the minors, often those reasons have to do with age and inexperience. Those two go hand-in-hand, when you're working up from the lower rungs. Last year, Lexington's average age for position players was 20.8, which is awfully young even for the South Atlantic League. Indeed, only the Hickory Crawdads and Lakewood BlueClaws could boast a younger group, even though the average difference was no more than half a year.

In Class A, which is the first full-season level in the minors, you usually see players who haven't been in the game longer than a couple of years. Two exceptions to that are non-drafted free agent signings who entered pro ball at 16 or 17, or players who may have stepped back as part of a rehab assignment. SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi was only 17 when he spent last year in Lexington and performed well beyond his years. With a .261 BA, 13 doubles, 7 triples and 7 homers to go with 47 RBI and 24 steals, Mondesi was actually one of the core run producers in the lineup. He had the sort of struggles at the plate you'd expect from a teenager in Class A (118 strikeouts), but he rarely looked out-of-place in the field. Yes, he did make 30 errors at short in 108 games, but many of those were on balls that most infielders would never have reached in the first place. One could argue that Mondesi could jump two levels on his glove alone. It hardly matters; he could make a career in the Majors without even swinging a bat, as far as I'm concerned. He's got as much range and plays as fluid and natural at short as I've ever seen. So to recap: great glove, great range, great arm, speedster, switch-hitter. There's a lot to like, and we'll be liking it from the stands when he comes back for a return engagement.

Catcher Chad Johnson made it to Lexington for only 4 games last year, playing 38 in rookie-level Burlington. The view on him so far is “strong arm, good glove, possible average or above-average pop at catcher”, and I can't argue with that (mainly because, hey, 4 games at Lexington). He did throw out 30% of would-be base-thieves in the Appy League, which isn't bad, but hasn't yet demonstrated any semblance of power at the plate. If he can start to turn some of those groundballs into line-shots, you'll probably see good doubles power from him. He's going to need more time here at The Bank in order to make that happen, so expect him to return.

IF Humberto Arteaga spent a difficult 61 games in Lexington (.188 BA, 13 RBI, 0 SB in 61 games) before going back down to rookie-level Idaho Falls and turning into an RBI machine. He was only nineteen, himself, so a bit young for Class A. Once he hit the Pioneer League (literally), he lit up for 15 doubles, an unreal 58 RBI and 56 runs scored to go with his .280 BA in his 69 games there. Arteaga is 6'1”. 160, so there's a lot of projectability there, and he could add some pop as he fills out. As it stands now, he's got the versatility to play second and short, though second base is probably the best fit. He also has a great deal of range for either position, and a middle infield with Mondesi and Arteaga makes it a tough go for anyone putting the ball on the ground. He should return for 2014.

Ah, Bubba Starling...the name seems to encourage lively debate amongst prospect enthusiasts. The physical tools are most certainly there; there's no arguing against that. Whether he can develop them to their fullest is up for discussion. Starling's got a great arm, covers all sorts of ground in center with little effort, and runs the bases far better than you'd expect for someone who's 6'4”. Not a lot of tall basestealers around. He struggled for much of the season offensively, though a good portion of that can be written off to vision problems which (I believe) were corrected. He did bat .322 in August, a dramatic improvement over the high of .250 he had in June. Couple this with an overall .298 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position and you can see a small part of why he was a 1st-round pick. There were moments when he let his youth and inexperience shine through in less-than-positive ways (ahem), but that could be a result of having so much pressure on him as a 5th-overall pick mixed with having to develop while playing against more-experienced players. Being a two-sport star does have its disadvantages, after all. Starling has the tools and size to become a middle-of-the-order run producer who could swipe 20-25 bags a year. The way I see it, most of that hinges on his mental approach and maturity; he can be what he wills himself to be. Coaching aside, the bulk of his future production lies with this factor. If Kansas City wants to handle his development the right way, he should come back to Class A for at least the first part of the season.

Cam Gallagher, who had 66 games in Lexington between injury issues, is another well-regarded talent in the Royals system. Gallagher calls a good game, commits few miscues and has a better arm than his 29% caught-stealing rate would suggest. I expect that he could develop enough power to move to 1^st, if needed, especially if he splits his time between there and behind the plate. He's 6'3”, so a move might be best for him (and his legs) in the long run. It's awfully soon to tell just how well he'll turn out, but he's a legit prospect and has yet to show us what he can do. Returning to Lexington would be the best thing for Cam; he needs to establish that he can make it through a full year of ball.

OF-1B Fred Ford has pop (definitely) and filled in at first base as well as RF, though he did make 8 errors at first (47 games) and 6 in right (74 games). Keep in mind He'd be at least average defensively at either position, but I like his arm in RF. The downside of being 6'5” is that your strike zone is the size of a Buick, and Ford's 166 Ks in 126 games is testament to that. He'll have to shorten his swing if he's going to cut those Ks down to a manageable number, and he did show that he's working on that in the games I saw him in. Still, if he can make more frequent contact he could produce 20 homers by accident. That .193 average is troubling, but he did draw 52 walks as well. Even with the talent he has and his relative youth (22 on April 10^th), he's at a crossroads. He has to come back.

-3B Hunter Dozier was last year's 1^st round pick for the Royals. 24 doubles in 54 games for Idaho Falls, along with a .303 BA, .403 OBP, 7 HR and 43 RBI. He played 15 games with the Legends, notching 6 more doubles and 9 RBI with his .327 BA (55 AB). At 6'4”, 220, he'll either end up starring at third or at first. But he'll star somewhere.

Pitchers up, next. Also, more of the players who could be paying us a visit for the 1^st time in 2014. 

2014 Lexington Legends Preview: Part Three

An ongoing look at Royals prospects likely to make up the 2014 Legends roster

FEB 8^th, 2014-Continuing on with a look at prospective players for our Lexington Legends in 2014, there are a lot of possibilities to consider.

One caveat concerning the Legends, this year: besides the young rookie-league prospects from the three rookie teams in Kansas City's organization, there are also a number of players who could likely be returning to Lexington for at least the first part of the season. There are a number of reasons for this (further experience in Class A needed, player too young to advance to High-A at this time, need to work on specific skills before facing higher-level players, etc.), but they are the sorts of reasons used to consider in the handling of players at all levels.

For the purposes of this post, I'm looking only at rookie-league players. Here's a look at four more players who could be hitting the Sally this year (or returning to the league for an encore):

Hitters

Desmond Henry, OF

Bats: R Throws: R

Ht: 6'1” Wt: 175

Born: July 7^th, 1993 in Los Angeles, California

School: Centennial HS (Compton, CA)

Drafted: by the Texas Rangers in the 4^th round of the 2011 MLB Draft

Signed out of high school for $200,000 by the Rangers in 2011, Desmond Henry was acquired in the trade that sent Tommy Hottovy to the Rangers. Henry has outstanding speed (6.47 in the 60 at the 2010 Area Code Games, an easy 80 on the scouting scale), excellent range in the outfield, and his arm could grade out as 'plus' at his peak. Simply put, he's one to watch. Remember Terrance Gore, last year? Very similar, only Gore is likely stronger than Henry (even given the size difference). Henry swiped 20 bags with Burlington in the Appalachian League in 2013, batting .244 in 48 games. He was suspended in 2012 after an arrest on a charge of possession of alcohol by a minor, but it seems that this was an isolated incident. He may not ever produce much in the way of power (4 doubles, 2 HR in 2013), but players who are this fast are rarely required to do so. Keep an eye out for him.

Ramon Torres, 2B

Bats: B Throws: R

Ht: 5'10” Wt: 155

Born: January 22^nd, 1993 in Moncion, Santiago Rodriguez, Dominican Republic

School:

Drafted: NDFA in 2009 by the Kansas City Royals

Torres spent 26 games here with the Legends last season, and is known to have line-drive skills with the bat and solid pitch recognition. He has steady defensive skills, though his previous numbers definitely seem to refute that assessment (13 errors in 42 games at short with Burlington). I see him more as a second baseman than as a shortstop, and that certainly doesn't affect the outlook on him as a prospect. Torres has good speed on the bases, hits his share of doubles (41 in 233 career games), and walks nearly as much as he strikes out. Mind you, he rarely strikes out; 116 Ks in 965 career PA is pretty darn good. He's pretty much a lock to start the year in Lexington, and I expect him to contribute in a significant way to the Legends.

Cristian Cano, OF

Bats: R Throws: R

Ht: 6'2” Wt: 170

Born: February 9^th, 1994 in Cartagena, Columbia

School:

Drafted: NDFA by the Kansas City Royals in 2011

Cano has a lot of projection left, possesses above-average speed and solid bat control, and has a solid-average arm from the OF. He definitely projects better as a left-fielder than if he were in right, as he doesn't have the sort of arm strength you'd ideally like to have in RF. He's got plenty of time to develop (he turns 20 tomorrow), and as he adds a bit of size he could become a gap-to-gap guy with a lot of doubles. Can might very well be an 'under-the-radar' type of prospect.

Brandon Dulin, 1B-DH

Bats: L Throws: R

Ht: 6'3” Wt: 225

Born: December 29^th, 1992 in Lee's Summit, Missouri

School: Metropolitan Community College-Longview (Kansas City, MO)

Drafted: by the Kansas City Royals in the 12^th round of the 2013 MLB Draft

Dulin has prototypical size for a 1^st baseman, but his 6 triples and 5 steals in 46 games in the Arizona League last year are surprising. He's a powerfully-built hitter who manages to play an agile 1^st base, with an above-average arm for first. He can turn on the ball very well and has easy plus power for his position. Dulin has some experience in the OF, but as he moves up the chain he's likely to play the majority of his games at the first sack. The best part, as far as I'm concerned, is that he's only 21 years old. Thus, he has some time to move up the chain and the 1^st base prospects ahead of him might be thinned out a bit before KC has to make a decision on him. I like his future, but with hitters this big there's concern over injury risk. Playing full-season ball will tell us a lot more about how well he'll adjust to the pro circuit.

And the Preview goes on and on...Part Four coming soon, with a look at pitchers after that. Also, will be happy to write posts by request. If you have a favorite player you'd like to read about in more detail, drop me a line and I'll make it happen. 

2014 Lexington Legends Preview: Part Two

An ongoing look at players likely to make up the 2014 roster

FEB 2^nd, 2014-Continuing my look at prospective Legends hitters for the 2014 season, I'd like to state the obvious (yet again): there are quite a few promising hitters in the Royals system who are due to come up from the rookie leagues. Yes, I know that rookie-level ball is not the best measure of future potential; it certainly doesn't hurt, however, when you compare numbers with scouting reports, along with other factors (age, player's size/frame, background, etc).

And with that in mind, we soldier on:

Hitters

Alexis Rivera, OF

Bats: L Throws: L

Ht:6'2” Wt: 225

Born: June 17^th, 1994 in Ponce, Puerto Rico

School: Montverde Academy (Kissimmee, Florida)

Drafted: by the Kansas City Royals in the 10^th round of the 2012 MLB Draft

Another rather large teenager from the rookie leagues, Rivera has the makings of a power-hitting corner outfielder. His numbers last year at Idaho Falls weren't all that inspiring (8 doubles, 4 HR, 26 RBI in 57 games, .269 BA), but not all rookie-level leagues are created equal. He's powerfully-built, has great bat speed and a sound eye at the plate, skills which should give you a ready-made #3 or 4 hitter at the higher levels. While he draws a fair amount of walks, he has only gone down on strikes 66 times in 388 total pro at-bats; that's what is the most telling stat, to me. He's also managed 18 steals in those 105 games, but he's not going to be swiping a lot of bags as he advances. He simply isn't built for it. Another stat of interest: .333 BA in 45 AB with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. Not a big sample size, but something to note nevertheless.

Daniel Rockett, CF

Bats: R Throws: R

Ht: 6'2” Wt: 200

Born: November 9^th, 1990 in Sugar Land, Texas

School: University of Texas at San Antonio

Drafted: by the Kansas City Royals in the 9^th round of the 2013 MLB Draft

Plus side: .310, 11 HR, 53 RBI in 58 games. Minus side: put up those #s as a 22 year-old in rookie ball. Grain of salt, and all that. Still, Rockett is someone to watch. He's athletic and pretty much gets all he can out of his ability, although I don't see him sticking in CF as he advances up the chain. He covers a fair amount of ground in center, but his ability would play up in left. He's 23 now, and he'll need to move quickly in order to keep from being passed by younger, more highly-regarded (or highly-drafted) players, but I fully expect strong numbers from him in his first year in full-season ball. Considering his age and ability (quick bat, solid glove and range), he could be heading to Wilmington in the Carolina League, leapfrogging Lexington altogether.

Cody Stubbs, 1B

Bats: L Throws: R

Ht: 6'4” Wt: 215

Born: January 14^th, 1991 in Waynesville, North Carolina

School: Tuscola HS (Waynesville, NC); University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Chapel Hill, NC); Walters State Community College (Morristown, TN)

Drafted: by the Boston Red Sox in the 29th round of the 2009 MLB June Amateur Draft from Tuscola HS (Waynesville, NC), the Washington Nationals in the 14th round of the 2011 MLB June Amateur Draft from Walters State Community College (Morristown, TN) and the Kansas City Royals in the 8th round of the 2013 MLB June Amateur Draft from University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Chapel Hill, NC).

Drafted three different times from 2009 to 2013, Stubbs certainly had his share of suitors. Each time he was drafted, it was earlier on than before (29^th round, 14^th round, 8^th round, respectively), and after his first year in the pros one can understand why. With good size a slight bit of projectability left, as well as developing lefty power and a strong arm for the position, Stubbs might soon find himself bypassing more experienced players already in the Royals system.

In 64 games at Idaho Falls last year, Stubbs batted .284 with 6 homers, 43 RBI, 13 doubles and even 7 triples. Those triples were more a product of power than speed, though he runs the bases well. He did strike out 61 times in 264 AB, so that's something which could work against him as he advances, and at 6'4” it will probably take a little time and work to cut down on those Ks. At 23, he's another player who'll have to move quickly if he's going to keep from being passed on the organizational ladder. Stubbs has the tools to do just that.

Frank Schwindel, C-1B-DH

Bats: R Throws: R

Ht: 6'1” Wt: 205

Born: June 29^th, 1992 in Livingston, NJ

School: St John's University (Queens, NY)

Drafted: by the Kansas City Royals in the 18^th round of the 2013 MLB Draft

Schwindel is solid at both catcher and first base, but his future (at the moment) appears to be at catcher. His arm rates plus as a first baseman, if he ends up there, and I could definitely see him as a plus defender at the first sack. He had 8 passed balls in 2013 with three errors, which are certainly indications that he needs work behind the dish. However, he threw out 39% of basestealers as well, so that's also a promising sign. Schwindel popped 6 homers and 14 doubles in 64 games at Idaho Falls, batting an even .300. While he only struck out 24 times (260 AB), he drew a pathetic 9 walks. One would think that most batters could draw nine free passes accidentally. Drawing walks is something that I watch closely, so nine doesn't cut it. Schwindel should head to Lexington for 2014, and his work behind the plate will interest me more than his work in the batter's box.

Dominique Taylor, OF

Bats: R Throws: R

Ht: 6'1” Wt: 190

Born: August 11^th, 1992 in Frankfort, Germany

School: Salt Lake Community College (Salt Lake City, UT); University of California-Irvine (Irvine, CA)

Drafted: by the Houston Astros in the 33^rd round of the 2011 MLB Draft from Salt Lake CC; by the Kansas City Royals in the 15^th round of the 2013 MLB Draft from UC-Irvine

Taylor might just be one of the late-round steals of last year's draft. At age 20, Taylor batted .322 with 8 homers, 37 RBI, 14 doubles, 50 runs scored and 13 steals in 62 games, impressive numbers even taking into account the offensively-inclined Pioneer League. Add to that only 29 strikeouts in 233 AB, and you can see that he had very little trouble adjusting at the plate to pro ball. I see him as an 'under-the-radar' type of player, though he likely won't go unnoticed by the pro and/or advance scouts for very long. Assuming they make a stop in the Sally League, I see Taylor and Zane Evans being Ethan Chapman-type guys for Lexington: great energy, good clubhouse presence, spark plugs in the batting order, always 100% in the field, fan favorites.

More to come, including more hitters on their way up, as well as pitching prospects who could take the mound at The Bank.